The property clock is often used
to follow the property cycle, which circulates over a seven to ten year period,
and is based on the relationship between interest rates, supply and demand,
affordability/finance availability, and the cost of renting.
It is seen as a useful tool by the
experienced investors to aid them in determining the best time to strategically
enter and exit the property market.
A property Boom, indicative of peak prices, is shown at the top of the clock at 12 o'clock, while a property Bust, is indicative of when property is at its lowest price, at 6 o'clock. The best time to invest in property, just after 6 o'clock, is during a rising market where it can dramatically lower the risk of investment.
An important point to remember is that the "time span" between
a boom and bust market is on average three to four years, but due to the deep
recession the world has gone through after the Sub-Prime Crises the time span
between our bust and boom looks like it will last seven to eight years.
I do believe we are now safely in the Recovery Phase and at
around 10 o’clock on the property clock which makes it the ideal time to invest
in property before the sharp increase in prices start.
Characteristics
of Recovery (9 o'clock to 12 o'clock)
Who sells and why?
* Rental
property owners - Landlords getting dividends
* Investors -
miscalculating market peak
Who buys and why?
* Experienced
investors - Still predicting rising prices
* General
public - Increasing credit availability
* Tenants -
Afraid price increases will make later purchases impossible
What moves the clock?
* Employment
increases
* Market
stabilizes
* Increased
disposable income
* Improving
personal debt to income ratio
* Property
becomes an attractive investment
* House
prices still low
* Increasing
construction
* Increasing
demand for property
* Renewed
business confidence
* Interest
rates and inflation declining
The situation in the South African Economy:
Currently Negative;
Currently Positive;
Currently Neutral;